Oreilly.com has posted an article about facebook applications and the long tail. They put together some research that is very interesting which states that 87% of all application usage in facebook is by 84 applications. There are about 5000 applications now on facebook so that is roughly 1.7% of the applications. He goes on to tell that only 45 applications have more than 100,000 active users.
Now these are great insights to the statistics of facebook application usage but then he goes on to explain how this is the long tail. Well actually this is incorrect as the long tail is supposed to be fat and deep and catering to a market that was unreachable before. He acknowledges the mistake in an update and says it should be called "the short head rules" . This more accurately describes the phenomenon.
What does this mean? Is it not worthwhile to develop applications for facebook because only the first entrant have all the traffic. No way! The facebook f8 platform is still in its infancy and there are going to be plenty of apps that breakthrough and get massive usage. Also, the growth rate of facebook should be taken into account. There are now 30 million users on facebook. What is going to happen when the user numbers hit 50 million? 100 million? Will the dynamics change then? We think there is plenty of opportunity for the apps in the long tail still.
Another factor is advertising. Many application developers have spent time on building their apps and trying to make them viral on their own. Some will succeed in this manor but a viral application PLUS advertising will always come out on top.
Don't get discouraged by this report if you are an application developer, facebook is still a baby and there is going to be more massive growth to come!
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